Our 2026 Forecast
What day should I go to the State Fair?
It’s an exciting question for Minnesotans this time of year. It means the summer is coming to an end and we’re headed into the amazing Minnesota fall. It means the new foods of the fair list has long been out, teasing us. Talk of the State Fair is right up there with the weather as a small talk go-to for Minnesotans, and crowd size quickly comes up as a major factor when deciding on a day to attend. We’re curious people so we decided to do some research. Can we use publicly available information to accurately estimate the daily attendance at the 2026 Minnesota State Fair?
2026 Minnesota State Fair Daily Attendance Forecasts
Full disclosure, I have never forecasted daily event attendance before, so please do not consider this to be any sort of academic research. This is a resourceful, realistic approach to research where we’re attempting to answer a question that will impact a decision: What day should I make my way to Falcon Heights?
When I took a journalism course in college, the professor insisted that science and art can’t overlap, but I couldn’t disagree more. The scientific world is full of its own kind of artists, making creative decisions to solve problems and answer questions. Forecasting the daily attendance of an event based on publicly available information is a blend of science and art. So how did we do it?
Let’s get into it.
Starting with our question…
How many people are going to attend the Minnesota State Fair each of the 12 days in 2026?
What information is available to help us answer this?
Quantitative Data
- Daily attendance records (2000-2025) —> reliable, provides trends
- Daily weather records (2000-2025) —> reliable, provides trends
- Daily weather forecasts (2026) —> not reliable, but a common piece of data used by fair goers
- Annual Minnesota State Senate Booth Poll (2014-2025) —> not scientific, but used a consistent collection method for directional research
- Annual ticket prices (2000-2025) —> reliable, provides trends
- Annual Consumer Price Index (2000-2025) —> reliable, provides trends
- Annual Minnesota population (2000-2025) —> reliable, provides trends
Qualitative Data
- Minnesota metro school district openings (2026) —> Introduced by anecdotal information that schools are starting earlier this year as the State Fair starts later.
High-level, how do I use this information to answer our question?
- Review all data sources.
- Identify potentially relevant trends.
- Give weight to each trend, even if informally.
- Start piecing together trends, using the weight to determine the impact of the trend.
- Create the 2026 forecast.
- Test your forecast (2026 daily attendance results).
- Adjust the 2026 forecast.
- Test your forecast (2026 daily attendance results).
- Conduct a retrospective for 2027.
Right now, we’re at step 6, so check back to see how our forecast compares to the actuals as the Fair releases daily attendance records the following day between 12pm and 3pm.